2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election is the foundational political event of the novel, the moment Ellen Claremont won the presidency and the White House Trio entered public life. It is the benchmark against which every later political moment is measured—the emotional high of the Democratic National Convention, the bittersweet loss of Texas despite victory, and the family's transformation into the First Family. The election establishes the Claremont family's political identity, sets the timeline for Alex's coming-of-age, and provides the historical backdrop against which the 2020 campaign, the Waterloo Letters scandal, and the eventual victory are contrasted.

The Democratic National Convention and the Family's Triumph

The 2016 election is first recalled through the Democratic National Convention, a moment of pure family triumph that stands in stark contrast to the exhaustion of the 2020 convention. Alex remembers the trip to the DNC in 2016 as breathless, a sharp contrast to the frizzy-haired exhaustion of the 2020 convention where they were simultaneously trying to run the country and a campaign. At that first convention, Alex's father, Oscar Diaz, had been the delegate to cast the votes from California that put Ellen over the top, and the whole family cried. Alex and his sister June introduced their mother before her acceptance speech; June's hands were shaking, but Alex's were steady. The crowd roared, and Alex's heart roared back. This moment of familial and political unity—the father casting the decisive votes, the children introducing the candidate, the mother accepting the nomination—becomes the emotional template for the Claremont family's political identity.

The 2016 election also marks the family's transition into the White House, a change that carries both triumph and loss. The victory is bittersweet in a specific way: Austin is deep blue, and Ellen won Travis County by 76 percent, but no amount of fireworks and champagne corks in the streets changed the fact that they lost the state they stood in to make the victory speech. This paradox—winning the presidency while losing the home state—becomes a defining tension of the Claremont political story, one that the 2020 campaign will seek to resolve. The Lometa Longshot, as Ellen is nicknamed, wanted to come home again, and the 2016 loss of Texas becomes the unfinished business that drives the 2020 campaign's focus on turning the state blue.

The Election as Personal and Political Turning Point

The 2016 election is not merely a public event but a deeply personal one for Alex, shaping his sense of self and his future ambitions. The election's aftermath places Alex in the White House, where he begins to grapple with his own political future. The Texas Binder—his collection of data and notes on Texas politics—becomes a recurring symbol of this tension. Every time he looks at it, he knows it is a big fat case for him to go take the LSAT, as he knows both his parents wish he would instead of diving headfirst into politics. He has always, always said no; he doesn't wait for things, doesn't put in the time like that, doesn't do what he's told. The 2016 election thus sets up the central conflict of Alex's early adulthood: the pull between the immediate, instinctive path of politics and the slower, more deliberate path of law school.

The election also establishes the family dynamics that will play out across the novel. Alex's father, Oscar, demonstrates a particular understanding of his son that becomes important later. When Alex jokes about his dad's faith in him, Oscar rubs a hand over his goatee and says, "It's really not. Not to me, anyway. I see you." This moment of paternal recognition—"I see you"—is a quiet counterpoint to the public spectacle of the election, establishing the private support system that underlies Alex's public ambitions. The 2016 election is thus the moment when the family's public identity is forged, but also when its private bonds are tested and affirmed.

The 2016 Election as Historical Benchmark

The 2016 election serves as the historical benchmark against which the 2020 election is measured, and the contrast is stark. In 2016, the family was fresh and hopeful; by 2020, they are exhausted from running the country and a campaign simultaneously. The 2016 convention was a moment of pure joy; the 2020 convention is a stretch even for one night. This contrast is sharpened by the intervening scandals: the Waterloo Letters leak, the Richards campaign conspiracy, and the public outing of Alex's relationship with Henry. The 2016 election represents a kind of innocence—a time before the family's private lives became public weapons in a political war.

The 2016 election also establishes the political landscape that the Richards campaign will exploit. The Republican candidate Jeffrey Richards's campaign manager, Nilsen, is the one who orchestrates the surveillance and outing of Alex, hiring a firm that hired the hackers who got the surveillance tapes from the Beekman. This conspiracy is a direct escalation of the political warfare that began with the 2016 election, and it is only possible because of the Claremont family's prominence. The 2016 election thus creates the conditions for the 2020 scandal, as the family's visibility makes them vulnerable.

The Legacy of the 2016 Election

The 2016 election's legacy is most fully realized in the 2020 victory speech, delivered by Ellen Claremont in Austin, Texas, on November 3, 2020. In that speech, she explicitly references the 2016 election as a precipice, a moment when the nation could have stumbled backward into hatred and vitriol and prejudice. She reminds the crowd that they voted instead for a woman and a family with Texas dirt under their shoes, and that they did it again in 2020. The 2016 election is thus framed as the first act of a larger story of progress, one that culminates in the 2020 victory and the public acceptance of Alex and Henry's relationship.

The 2016 election also shapes the personal trajectories of the younger generation. Alex's decision to take the LSAT, which he reveals to Nora after the 2020 victory, is a direct response to the political experiences that began in 2016. Nora's reaction—"Oh! Oh … law school," she says, as simply as she said dick you down all those months ago—frames law school as the simple answer to where he's been unknowingly headed all along. The 2016 election set Alex on a path that leads not to immediate political office but to law school, a slower, more deliberate route to the same destination. The election thus functions as both a beginning and a benchmark, the moment that set the Claremont family on its course and the standard against which all subsequent political moments are judged.