The Planning Fallacy

Thinking, Fast and Slow

This flow follows the rise, exposure, and partial correction of unrealistic plans based on private circumstances rather than comparable cases.

increasing

Bearing strength in each event

decreasing

Curriculum Optimism Curriculum Optimism from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Two-Year Forecast Inside View The curriculum team predicts completion from its own progress and enthusiasm.

Curriculum Optimism from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Two-Year Forecast Inside View The curriculum team predicts completion from its own progress and enthusiasm.

A Two-Year Forecast Inside View The curriculum team predicts completion from its own progress and enthusiasm. Missing History No one initially asks how similar projects actually ended.

Reference-Class Shock Reference-Class Shock from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Seven Years or Failure Outside Information Seymour Fox recalls that many comparable teams failed and successful ones took seven to ten years.

Reference-Class Shock from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Seven Years or Failure Outside Information Seymour Fox recalls that many comparable teams failed and successful ones took seven to ten years.

Seven Years or Failure Outside Information Seymour Fox recalls that many comparable teams failed and successful ones took seven to ten years. Unwelcome Baseline The statistics contradict the team's confident schedule.

Irrational Perseverance Irrational Perseverance from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Refusing to Quit Sunk Commitment The team continues despite recognizing that its original plan was unrealistic.

Irrational Perseverance from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Refusing to Quit Sunk Commitment The team continues despite recognizing that its original plan was unrealistic.

Refusing to Quit Sunk Commitment The team continues despite recognizing that its original plan was unrealistic. Emotional Cost Embarrassment and inertia replace explicit decision analysis.

Project Completion Project Completion from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Delayed Book Unforeseen Obstacles Illness, divorce, bureaucracy, and coordination problems consume years.

Project Completion from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Delayed Book Unforeseen Obstacles Illness, divorce, bureaucracy, and coordination problems consume years.

A Delayed Book Unforeseen Obstacles Illness, divorce, bureaucracy, and coordination problems consume years. Failed Mission The curriculum is completed but never used by the ministry.

Reference-Class Remedy Reference-Class Remedy from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Forecasting from Distribution Baseline First Planners identify a relevant class and use its actual outcomes.

Reference-Class Remedy from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Forecasting from Distribution Baseline First Planners identify a relevant class and use its actual outcomes.

Forecasting from Distribution Baseline First Planners identify a relevant class and use its actual outcomes. Case Adjustment Specific evidence modifies the baseline only when it is genuinely diagnostic.

During the author's work with the Israeli Ministry of Education

The Friday afternoon planning meeting

Immediately after the reference-class revelation

Eight years after the team began

Near the end of Part 3