Regression as a Counter-Story

This flow follows the book's effort to replace seductive causal explanations with the mathematics of regression and imperfect correlation.

increasingBearing stren­gth in each eventdecreasing

Praise and Punishment

Flight Instructor Puzzle A Repeated Pattern Praise follows excellent landings and is followed by deterioration; punishment follows poor landings and improvement. Misleading Inference The apparent feedback effect is regression, not proof that punishment works.

Coin Throws

Luck on the Blackboard Artificial Demonstration Officers throw coins at a target twice without seeing the results. Statistical Clarity The best first performers tend to worsen and the worst tend to improve without intervention.

Golf and Luck

Day One Extremes Talent Plus Luck A score of 66 suggests both ability and unusually favorable chance. Moderate Forecast The second-day prediction should move toward average performance.

Galton's Discovery

Toward Mediocrity Hereditary Stature Francis Galton observes that extreme parental measurements predict less extreme offspring measurements. General Principle Imperfect correlation makes regression inevitable.

Corrected Prediction

Moderating Intuition Baseline and Correlation Forecasting begins with the average and moves toward the intuitive estimate only by the strength of the evidence. Reduced Bias Moderate predictions lose dramatic certainty but gain calibration.

At the opening of the regression chapter

Immediately after the instructor dispute

Middle of the regression chapter

Later in the regression chapter

Near the end of Part 2