Representation Against Base Rates

Thinking, Fast and Slow

This flow follows the recurring contest between vivid resemblance and statistical prevalence in individual prediction.

increasing

Bearing strength in each event

decreasing

Steve the Librarian Steve the Librarian from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". The Stereotype Trap Immediate Fit Steve resembles the stereotype of a librarian.

Steve the Librarian from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". The Stereotype Trap Immediate Fit Steve resembles the stereotype of a librarian.

The Stereotype Trap Immediate Fit Steve resembles the stereotype of a librarian. Missing Population The much larger number of farmers should dominate the probability judgment.

Tom W's Specialty Tom W's Specialty from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Carefully Built Conflict Personality Sketch Tom W appears suited to computer science and library science.

Tom W's Specialty from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Carefully Built Conflict Personality Sketch Tom W appears suited to computer science and library science.

A Carefully Built Conflict Personality Sketch Tom W appears suited to computer science and library science. Base Rates The populated fields remain more probable despite the vivid description.

Linda's Conjunction Linda's Conjunction from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Plausibility Beats Probability Coherent Detail Linda looks more like a feminist bank teller than a bank teller.

Linda's Conjunction from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Plausibility Beats Probability Coherent Detail Linda looks more like a feminist bank teller than a bank teller.

Plausibility Beats Probability Coherent Detail Linda looks more like a feminist bank teller than a bank teller. Logical Containment The detailed conjunction cannot be more probable than the broader category.

Causal Base Rates Causal Base Rates from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Statistics with a Story Green Cabs A reckless-driver stereotype makes a base rate psychologically meaningful.

Causal Base Rates from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". Statistics with a Story Green Cabs A reckless-driver stereotype makes a base rate psychologically meaningful.

Statistics with a Story Green Cabs A reckless-driver stereotype makes a base rate psychologically meaningful. Unequal Treatment Statistical base rates are neglected more readily than causal base rates.

Teaching the Particular Teaching the Particular from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Difficult Lesson Helping Experiment Students hear that ordinary people often fail to help a stranger.

Teaching the Particular from "Thinking, Fast and Slow". A Difficult Lesson Helping Experiment Students hear that ordinary people often fail to help a stranger.

A Difficult Lesson Helping Experiment Students hear that ordinary people often fail to help a stranger. Exemption from Statistics They accept the general result yet still imagine themselves and acquaintances as unusually helpful.

Early in Part 2

Middle of Part 2

Later in Part 2

After the Linda discussion

Near the end of the chapter on causes and statistics