The Career of the Anchoring Effect
Thinking, Fast and SlowThis flow follows how arbitrary starting numbers quietly shape estimates, negotiations, judgments, and public policy.
increasing
Bearing strength in each event
decreasing
Rigged Wheel

The Random Anchor
Uninformative Numbers
A manipulated wheel produces either 10 or 65 before estimates of African nations are requested.
Persistent Influence
Even an absurd number pulls judgments toward itself.
Adjustment Failure

Stopping Too Soon
Deliberate Movement
People recognize that an anchor is wrong and adjust in the correct direction.
Insufficient Distance
They stop when uncertainty no longer clearly demands further movement.
Primed Estimates

Anchors as Suggestions
Selective Memory
High and low temperature anchors activate different seasonal associations.
Associative Coherence
The estimate changes because compatible evidence becomes easier to retrieve.
Professional Denial

Real-Estate Experts
Market Judgment
Real-estate agents' prices shift with arbitrary listing anchors.
Confidence Blindness
The professionals deny influence even while displaying it.
Anchors in Policy

Numbers on the Table
Legal Consequences
Damage caps can pull awards upward as well as limit extreme payments.
Defensive Practice
Thinking the opposite and seeking counterarguments offers partial resistance.
Early in Part 2
Immediately after the wheel experiment
Middle of the anchoring chapter
Later in the anchoring chapter
Near the end of the anchoring chapter