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Nanhai Fumo

The Wisdom of Crowds

The South Sea Bubble was one of the historical financial manias invoked to show how a crowd can lose its capacity for sound judgment. In the account, its importance lies not in a detailed chronology of the episode, but in the pattern it exemplifies: prices rise on the expectation of further rises, until confidence reverses and investors rush to sell.

Historical Examples of Market Mania

The South Sea Bubble in England in the 1720s appears alongside the Japanese real-estate boom of the 1980s and the late-1990s technology-stock bubble. These episodes represent rare moments when speculation reaches beyond a narrow sector and seems to draw in investors broadly. By contrast, smaller waves of enthusiasm—such as the mid-century American interest in bowling stocks—remain confined to particular parts of the market.

Price, Value, and Reversal

A bubble forms when price and value lose their connection. Investors buy not because a company’s prospects justify its stock price, but because they expect someone else to pay more. That expectation can sustain rising prices for a time; the reversal comes when investors no longer believe the rise will continue, and many seek the exit at once. The South Sea Bubble is named as an example of this wider sequence, rather than described through specific transactions or participants.

Collective Judgment and Economic Consequences

The episode also serves as an example of collective decision-making gone wrong. In a bubble, the conditions that can make a group’s judgment reliable—independent views, diverse information, and private assessment—give way to shared expectations and imitation. The consequences reach beyond investors: stock prices influence how much capital companies can raise, so inflated valuations can channel resources toward firms on terms that do not reflect their underlying value. The South Sea Bubble thus anchors a warning about the economic force of collective misjudgment, not simply the volatility of prices.