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Social capital

The Wisdom of Crowds

Social capital describes the relational resources that make cooperation possible: trust, networks, shared expectations, and norms of reciprocity. In the book’s account, collective life cannot be explained by individual self-interest or formal rules alone. People must also expect others to contribute, exchange information, and accept common procedures. Those expectations are productive but vulnerable: they can support public goods and shared knowledge, yet falter when institutions fragment information, evade accountability, or make cooperation seem unfair.

Trust, Institutions, and Cooperation

Social capital matters because many benefits are shared even by people who do not personally pay for them. Taxation makes this tension unusually clear. Publicly funded services—including roads, schools, police and fire protection, scientific research, and national defense—are largely nonexcludable: people can benefit whether or not they contribute. That creates an individual incentive to free-ride, even though widespread free-riding would undermine the goods everyone relies on. In 2001, the IRS audited only 0.5 percent of tax returns, so legal enforcement alone could not ensure compliance. A functioning tax system also depended on people paying voluntarily, however reluctantly, because they accepted the collective value of contributing.

The perceived fairness of the arrangement affects that willingness. In the 1990s, tax shelters and increasingly complex rules made it harder for ordinary Americans to know what counted as a fair share, while the Treasury Department described corporate tax avoidance as growing to an unacceptable level. Most Americans still paid honestly and said cheating was wrong, but the visibility of successful avoidance could weaken confidence in the system. Social cooperation is therefore not secured simply by showing that collective provision benefits everyone. People must also believe that others, including powerful actors, are subject to obligations that are recognizably fair.

This broader problem appears in public reactions to executive compensation. In September 2003, New York Stock Exchange head Richard Grasso faced calls to resign after news broke that the exchange planned to pay him $139.5 million in retirement benefits, deferred pay, and bonuses. The board asked him to step down after public outrage made his continued presence untenable. The protesters did not stand to receive the money themselves, and the exchange was spending its own funds; from a narrowly self-interested economic perspective, the time spent objecting seemed to offer them no direct return. Yet the response showed that people may care about standards of fairness beyond their immediate material gain. Such judgments can be part of the moral expectations that hold collective arrangements together.

Distributed Knowledge and Shared Judgment

Social capital also has an informational dimension: cooperation relies on relationships and practices through which people can share what they know. The book sets out a persistent organizational tension. Decentralization can foster independence and specialization, and people closest to a problem may possess valuable local or tacit knowledge. But information discovered in one part of a system may never reach the rest. The challenge is to preserve local knowledge while making it useful to the wider group.

The U.S. intelligence community illustrates the cost of failing to connect information. After four major terrorist attacks between 1993 and 2001 went unanticipated, congressional criticism focused on agencies’ failure to share information and assemble localized snapshots into a coherent picture. Senator Richard Shelby argued that the FBI’s decentralized structure left information fragmented among largely independent fiefdoms. His proposed remedy was a central agency above the competing bureaucracies. The contrast is instructive: decentralization can increase the information available at the edges, but without reliable channels for aggregation, a system may possess relevant pieces and still fail to make collective sense of them.

The proposed Policy Analysis Market offered a different way to draw dispersed information together. Unlike an internal market limited to intelligence personnel, PAM was to be open to the public and focused on the Middle East. Its sponsors hoped that people outside the intelligence bureaucracy might contribute information that agencies would otherwise miss. Senators Ron Wyden and Byron Dorgan led the effort to kill it after condemning the proposal, and the idea became a public controversy in the summer of 2003. The book’s defense of the proposal is not that a market automatically serves the public interest: it is that widening participation could bring overlooked knowledge into the process, while a financial incentive to forecast accurately might counter bureaucratic pressure to give comfortable answers. The controversy also exposes a limit of that argument: the prospect of profit from terrible events struck many observers as morally unacceptable, regardless of possible informational value.

Scientific Cooperation and the Common Fund

The international search for the cause of SARS shows how trust and information exchange can turn dispersed expertise into a collective achievement. After reports of a severe respiratory disease emerged from Guangdong Province, cases appeared in Hanoi and Hong Kong, and the World Health Organization issued a global warning. On March 15 and 16, 2003, the WHO contacted eleven laboratories across several countries and asked them to investigate together. The laboratories agreed, began work on March 17, held daily teleconferences, posted images and results online, and exchanged virus samples so that they could check and build on one another’s findings.

The arrangement accelerated the investigation because laboratories could work simultaneously on the same samples. Researchers tested and ruled out possible causes; scientists at Hong Kong University and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control separately isolated candidate viruses on March 21. Over the following weeks, researchers in the network detected a coronavirus in samples from SARS patients, and laboratories in Germany, the Netherlands, and Hong Kong began sequencing it. Monkeys infected in the Netherlands laboratory developed SARS-like illness. On April 16, about a month after the collaboration began, the labs announced that the coronavirus caused SARS.

The discovery cannot be assigned to one person. Electron microscopist Cynthia Goldsmith first spotted the coronavirus, but the network’s subsequent work established that it caused the disease. The laboratories’ shared investigations—including experiments that ruled out other candidates—made the conclusion possible. No single authority directed what each lab should study or how it should divide the work. The WHO organized the network, while the participants agreed to share relevant data and speak each morning; beyond that, they worked out their own collaboration. The episode demonstrates that social capital need not mean centralized control. Shared expectations of openness and reciprocal scrutiny allowed specialized groups to coordinate without a single laboratory claiming the discovery for itself.

Scientific openness extends that principle beyond a single project. Scientists publish results and make data available so others can inspect conclusions, challenge them, and use them to develop new hypotheses and experiments. In this sense, knowledge is not merely cumulative, inherited from predecessors; it is collective, depending on contemporaries whose work may confirm or correct one another. Even unsuccessful hypotheses can help by showing others where not to look.

Trust, Evidence, and Democratic Practice

The scientific community’s common fund depends on trust as well as testing. Scientific facts do not become true merely because a majority accepts them, but a finding becomes part of scientific knowledge when other researchers scrutinize the evidence and accept that it supports the claim. In the SARS case, the scientific community’s acceptance of the coronavirus explanation enabled laboratories to pursue tests and possible vaccines on that basis. Most scientists cannot personally repeat every experiment on which their work depends. They must judge others’ data credible, while recognizing that replication, scrutiny, and the exposure of fraud remain essential safeguards.

This trust is not blind confidence in individuals. It is confidence in a community’s practices for making claims public, examining evidence, and revising conclusions. The same distinction matters in politics: accurate judgment and legitimate procedure are not identical. The debate over deliberative democracy asks whether democracy is valuable because it gives citizens control and political stability, because people have a right to rule themselves, or because collective participation can produce intelligent decisions. Those purposes should not be collapsed into one another.

The book’s final account places democracy closer to a durable practice of coordination and cooperation than to a machine for discovering a single, definitive public interest. Democratic decisions may not always display the wisdom of a crowd. The process nevertheless teaches participants to accept outcomes they oppose, on the expectation that their opponents will not destroy what they value and that they will have another opportunity to prevail. That repeated experience of compromise helps sustain the social contract. Social capital, in this account, is neither a guarantee of wise outcomes nor a substitute for institutions: it is the trust and shared commitment that allow people to live with one another, contribute to common goods, and keep collective arrangements workable over time.