1963 Papal Conclave

The 1963 Papal Conclave is recalled as the historical precedent behind the expectation that a papal election might conclude by its fifth ballot. For Lomeli, its significance is more than chronological: it represents a measured, familiar pattern of succession against which the unstable election he must manage appears increasingly difficult to interpret.

A precedent for the fifth ballot

Lomeli places the 1963 election within a pattern in which the fifth ballot commonly brought a result. The election of Montini, who defeated Lercaro, is his example reaching back furthest in that sequence. Montini’s remark to his more charismatic rival, “That’s how life is, Your Eminence – you should be sitting here,” encapsulates the transfer of expectation and authority that an election can produce.

The precedent matters to Lomeli because five ballots would be a conventional, seemingly balanced duration: neither a schism nor a coronation, but a process in which the cardinals had discerned a choice. He had secretly prayed for that kind of outcome in the current Conclave. Remembering 1963 therefore makes the contrast with the present more pointed: the familiar timetable offers reassurance, but not a guarantee.

Lomeli’s interpretation of the present

The historical comparison belongs to Lomeli’s effort to read an election whose direction remains uncertain. He understands a Conclave as a collective body that can be moved by the Holy Spirit, yet he also draws on his reading of Elias Canetti’s Crowds and Power to distinguish crowds by their behavior. In his view, the present assembly is beginning to resemble a fragile, disintegrating crowd rather than one moving steadily toward a decision.

The reference to 1963 thus functions as a measure of continuity and its limits. A precedent can make the election seem intelligible, but it cannot determine what the current cardinals will do. For Lomeli, the old pattern of a fifth-ballot resolution is precisely what makes the present election’s uncertain character troubling.